Chinese Soviets?

China has taken the place of the Soviet Union in the minds of the American defense establishment, emerging as thee long-term focus of the United States government. China is seen as an "emerging threat" because of its potential ability to wage war. China reportedly increased its defense budget to $30 billion this year, though the Pentagon believes it actually spent closer to $90 billion. This type of suspicion permeates as the Pentagon looks for a clear enemy on which to focus. With a massive population, an industrializing economy and a secretive Communist government, the Pentagon has not only found their future enemy, they found one similar to their previous nemesis.

There are a few problems and flaws in the expectation of China's emergence as the next great threat. The first, and this is typically American, is the penchant to oversimplify global defense considerations and mold them into a single, overarching threat. This is not an uncommon phenomenon in American culture.

In economics, CNN airs stories about China's rise and how the Chinese are stealing American job. I disagree with the premise of the presentation. India takes "American jobs" in tech, but they aren't demonized like China.

My concern with China is fairly simple. I do not anticipate a military confrontation with China because I do not believe one will occur. The Chinese economy would collapse without exports to the US and we still owe them quite a bit of money, so I doubt they'll start a war. And the US has no desire to engage China in anything but international cooperation (North Korea, Iran just to start).

Here is the problem with China. If there is a popular demonstration in China and it resembles Tiananmen Square (when the cameras were turned off), what is the next image to be aired? Uneasily calm streets, maybe some spots of blood here and there? How would the government respond? I believe violently. At what point does that become unacceptable to the world? If some video leaks out from a mobile phone or whatever, China would be seriously damaged. I imagine there would be careful preparations to ensure closing off the area, but would the world accept a violent crackdown? Serious considerations, which loom essentially because China is a communist nation controlled by unelected party elites. They've opened markets but what about political freedom?