Raised Readiness

Mid-East tensions have recently been on graphic display with Lebanon bearing the brunt of destruction. After initially condemning the kidnappings of three uniformed Israeli soldiers, regional leaders have changed their tunes to reflect their domestic polities.

My primary concern is a hardening of attitudes which might cause the conflict to expand. Specifically, the Syrian military has been on 'High Alert' for almost a month with periodic elevations of their alert status (the most recent happening July 25). Israel continues to mobilize reservists as Hezbollah's leaders and spokesmen spout provocations about widening their attacks. For his part, Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora has called for peace but a fundamental obstacle remains; his year-old government is not strong enough to control (or exert pressure on) Hezbollah and so his efforts are ineffective.

Events in the Mid-East, especially the actions of Syria, have reminded me of WWI. Laymen point to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand as the point of no return, but WWI was not an inevitability until Russia mobilized it army. Once they did, the Germans attacked and... you know the rest.

I don't think we're currently passed the point of no return, but it is entirely possible. "This war will be remembered as the beginning of the end for Israel," said Hossein Safiadeen, a Hezbollah representative speaking from Iran. "You will see a new Middle East in the way of Hezbollah and Islam, not in the way of Rice and Israel."