Monday, December 10, 2007

Huckabee's Impending Demise

Despite a 20 point rise in Iowa over the past two months, there are several reasons Mike Huckabee will falter:
  1. Wayne DeMond - it's clear Huckabee pressed for the parole of the convicted rapist and two board members say he outright pressured them into DeMond's release. Afterwards, DeMond was convicted (again) of sexually assaulting and murdering one Missouri woman and suspected in the murder of another, this time a pregnant woman. Three horrendous crimes and it sounds worse than Willie Horton to me...
  2. Taxes, Taxes, Taxes - it's always bad when the punchline is, "worse than Bill Clinton." The Club For Growth has detailed the multitude of tax increases supported by Huckabee. It's a sad tale for a GOP primary when a governor from Massachusetts is running on a better tax record than the one from Arkansas.
  3. AIDS Ignorance - his comments from 1992 are so out of line, so outdated and so naive that they simply boggle the mind. His defense of the statement is even worse, especially after President Reagan drew ire for his ignorance on the same issue years earlier. The surgeon general published this brochure in 1988.
  4. Unless his impressive polling is accompanied by equally impressive contributions, the numbers are irrelevant. At the end of September, his cash on hand was a meager $651,301 which isn't nearly enough to respond the inevitable wave of criticism absorbed by a front-runner. Romney has to hit him hard and you can bet that he will.
  5. As Howard Fineman said, there is "his utter lack of foreign policy or military experience or exposure. In the end that may be fatal." I'm sure John McCain will begin hammering that point home, contrasting it with his wealth of experience.
To me, it all adds up to too many fights on too many fronts without adequate resources or organization. He may win Iowa, but that will be the high point of his campaign and will be stunted in New Hampshire five days later. It's almost midnight for this fairytale campaign.

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