Iowa: Why The Predictions Missed

Complete Results

Despite the cold weather, there was huge turnout for both parties. Romney's organizational advantage did not translate into expected votes and his zenith was, indeed, in Ames. Iowa's evangelicals strongly supported Huckabee, created his plurality, and failed to see through his political hucksterism (jape) concerning negative ads. Thompson somehow remained a vessel for GOPers to pin their hopes and cost the more substantive McCain at least five points.

Edwards spent six years campaigning in Iowa only to finish two point worse than he did in 2004 (a death knell) and Obama continued to ride an historic wave of growing support. Clinton's nine point loss is all the more devastating because of Tom Vilsack's unwavering support (read: VP angling). The race is now exclusively confined to the top three- Biden & Dodd have withdrawn- though Richardson is (predictably) staying in the fray.

Bottom line: Huckabee's bubble is taking slightly longer to burst than I expected but, all in all, my evaluations from early December seem on the money (see: Republican Rapid Fire & Democrat Rapid Fire).