He may win Iowa, will definitely win New Hampshire and, if both those happen, will clinch things by South Carolina. A middling prediction is a 2-3 point loss in Iowa, he probably wins Florida and sews things up for sure on Super Tuesday.
Worst case: he loses Iowa, New Hampshire is close enough for someone to claim to be coming on strong, a loss in South Carolina, and a slog all the way to the Convention in Florida (late August).
Ironically (and antithetically for the GOP), a long campaign can have its value for the eventual nominee. Obama had to slug it out with Clinton; it made him a better candidate. Of course, that occurred without an incumbent sitting President waiting for an opponent.
It's going to be over before Valentine's Day.
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