Iranian Dichotomy

The United Nations Security Council can not come to a consensus on Iran. Since February 9, 2003, the UN has monitored Iran through the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This observation began after a 20-year-old clandestine nuclear program was discovered. Since then, Iran has engaged a series of steps with the aim of dividing the Security Council. First, Iran used the dovishness of the EU3. They let the EU3 restrain the US because 'diplomacy was occurring.' After rejecting the proposals of the EU3, Iran seemed constrained. They decided to radicalize, issuing overt threats to Israel and anyone else who dares to threaten the Islamic theocracy. This was a measured response, carefully carried out by two elements: the figurehead and the Mullahs. The Mullahs have convinced Russia the figurehead will be kept on his leash (despite the comments he makes) and Russia has bought Iran more time with the IAEA & UN Security Council. Iran still has support from veto-wielding Russia and China, with both having extensive economic ties to Iran (Russia is building nuclear reactors, China is strategically securing oil reserves). After almost three years of political wrangling, one matter is clear: Iran is winning the game. International diplomacy is painfully slow, but Iran has thus far extended this issue and will continue to do so (unless Israel gets involved...).

Iran's strategy has been described as follows: convince the world Iran
A. is not to be trifled with, but
B. remains acting within a deliberate framework (the opposite of Nixon's 'madman' strategy).

Caveat: The President of Iran does not govern Iran. The Supreme Leader and the Council of Guardians (the Mullahs) hold the real power. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's President, is a mouthpiece of radicalism, used to incite the masses, but he holds virtually no authority and his comments can not be implemented with consent. With that said, Iran's strategy involves another element;
C. allow a radical invalid leader to do the saber rattling (so there is an element of Nixon's 'madman' strategy) and let the Council of Guardians moderate.

Here are some of the 'best-of' clips from the President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a former mayor of Tehran.

• He believes the Holocaust was a myth created by Europeans. "They have created a myth today that they call the massacre of Jews and they consider it a principle above God, religions and the prophets."
• He believes "Israel must be wiped off the map."
• He said if Europe and America wanted to atone by giving the Jews a homeland, it should be on their territory.
• He said of Ariel Sharon's life-threatening medical condition: "God willing," countless other Israeli leaders will follow.
• "You need us far more than we need you."
• He said during the past 16 years Iran implemented a policy of détente and tried to get closer to Europe and to trust them, but this policy achieved practically nothing.
• The main mission of his Government is to "pave the path for the glorious reappearance of Imam Mahdi," believing he will reign on Earth for seven years before bringing the Last Judgment and the end of the world. He believes he is destined to bring about the ''End Times'' by paving the way for the return of the Shia Muslim messiah.

The real government in Iran was forced to repudiate several comments by Mr. Ahmadinejad's after international condemnation.

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Comment Response: Our worthy reader has neglected critical information while formulating his hypothesiss of a weak United States military position regarding Iran. One needs to realize our 'thinly stretched' forced are massed to the East and West of Tehran (a major concern for the Iranians).