Zawahiri's letter is just one piece of the puzzle.
On October 12, 2005, shortly after the letter's publication, this column mistakenly predicted substantial media coverage focusing on Zawahiri's letter. The mass media made fleeting references to a mention of Vietnam while ignoring the strategic components. I have reread the letter and parsed out pertinentent pieces.
Before I go into the contents of the letter, I'd like to pass along this figure of speech: We have all the clocks, but they have all the time.
In warfare, time can be as significant as troop levels. General George Washington won the Revolutionary War by keeping his army in the field.
In modern time, America has all the fancy instruments of war, but our enemies have what it takes to win: time and patience.
Zawahiri describes his crusade against America as a "historic battle against the greatest of criminals and apostates in the heart of the Islamic world, the field where epic and major battles in the history of Islam were fought," while acknowledging facing "difficulty and hardship."
"The real danger comes from the agent Pakistani army that is carrying out operations in the tribal areas" of the Afghan-Pakistani border.
"(Iraq) is now the place for the greatest battle ... in this era."
"As for the battles that are going on in the far-flung regions of the Islamic world, such as Chechnya, Afghanistan, Kashmir, and Bosnia, they are just the groundwork and the vanguard for the major battles which have begun in the heart of the Islamic world."
"Our intended goal in this age is the establishment of a caliphate." Caliphate: territory governed by the representative of Allah on earth.
"Our next steps... The first stage: Expel the Americans from Iraq... The second stage: Establish an Islamic authority or amirate... The third stage: Extend the jihad wave to the secular countries neighboring Iraq... The fourth stage: It may coincide with what came before: the clash with Israel."
"The mujahedeen must not have their mission end with the expulsion of the Americans from Iraq." Withdrawal won't end the war.
"(These) goals will not be accomplished by the mujahed movement while it is cut off from public support ... popular support would be a decisive factor between victory and defeat."
"The Americans will exit soon ... The aftermath of the collapse of American power in Vietnam ... is noteworthy."
"We don't want to repeat the mistake of the Taliban, who restricted participation in governance ... I repeat the warning against separating from the masses, whatever the danger."
"Among the things which the feelings of the Muslim populace who love and support you will never find palatable are the scenes of slaughtering the hostages," a reference to beheadings. Zawahiri mentions the battle for "the hearts and minds" of the public. He states, "We are in a battle, and that more than half of this battle is taking place in the battlefield of the media."
Finally, Zawahiri closes by asking Zarqawi for money; "Our situation since Abu al-Faraj is good by the grace of God, but many of the lines have been cut off. Because of this, we need a payment while new lines are being opened. So, if you're capable of sending a payment of approximately one hundred thousand, we'll be very grateful to you."
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