It's Tough, But Why?

President Bush is trying to remind the nation of the difficulties and sacrifices needed to succeed in war. His message of steady, albeit tedious, progress is running into a month that has been among the war's deadliest. Mr. Bush has failed to explain this October increase in violence and jittery congressional Republicans have flinched. The Bush administration has started quoting the terrorists but, again, failed to explain this with any depth.

First the latter: Very few of terror videos or tapes are directed at Americans. Reviewing this material gives us insight into the aspirations of the originators. The President must go in-depth; start by explaining the concept of a caliphate and the consequences that would be derived from it, because most Americans do not understand what the word means, let alone how a true caliphate would affect geopolitics.

As for October violence, let remember one thing: this is Ramadan. During what should be "the most venerated, blessed and spiritually-beneficial month of the Islamic year," rebel instigators use violence to create a sullen atmosphere. Our opposition in Iraq has consistently used Ramadan as an opportunity to instill public disillusionment both in Iraq and America.

The months of October and November have accounted for more than a fifth of American deaths in Iraq, with 600 claimed in those months. November 2004, the war's deadliest month, followed a communiqué by OBL with his personal commentary on the upcoming American presidential election. The tape appeared to backfire, codifying support for Mr. Bush days before his reelection. Al-Qaeda & OBL has been conspicuously quiet with their public comments leading up to the 2006 mid-term, but the pattern of inciting violence during Ramadan remains systematic.

Since March 2003, October and November have stood out as the deadliest months in Iraq for American soldiers with two outliers; April 2004 and January 2005. April 2004 included intense clashes with Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi army and outrage stemming from abuses at Abu Ghraib. January 2005 attacks were a direct challenge to December elections & Iraq's nascent democracy.

US Fatalities By Month