Michigan Prediction

Romney, January 11, at Macomb Community College: "If we can’t win here, we can’t win anywhere."

Me, January 8, this blog: "Michigan looks like Romney's Little Bighorn and, without a convincing win there, he'll be playing the role of Custer."

Romney can certainly afford to go on after Michigan, but it'll be a fruitless endeavor. McCain will win the state by 2-4 points with Huckabee placing third and a muddled finish. Let's say it's Thompson in fourth (he looked sharp last debate and seems to be hitting his campaigning stride; if he'd begun in early July, this would be a very different race), Paul fifth, and Giuliani pulling up the rear (which is especially disappointing for someone who lead in Michigan as recently as last November).