GOP: McCain beats Romney by 5-8 points, depending on how many independents get swept up in Obama-mania. Afterward, Michigan looks like Romney's Little Bighorn and, without a convincing win there, he'll be playing the role of Custer. A third place finish for Huckabee is a victory in this state, but Giuliani will keep it close (within 2 points) and an upset is a major coup. Paul finishes 2-4% behind them. Thompson is lucky to surpass 4%.
Dems: Obama has another big night bolstered by 60% of independents and wins by at least 7 points (likely 10-12). A wounded Clinton will try to marginalize the significance of two small state losses by immediately shifting the focus to Nevada and South Carolina. Everyone seems to realize the Edwards campaign is kaput except, of course, John Edwards. Richardson continues his unremarkable run and may even start hitting Edwards in a contest for the two slot.
Bottom line: The Democrat race consolidates with two realistic candidates remaining as the GOP field is flung further open (music to Rudy's ears).
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