Nevada And South Carolina: Almost Perfect Predictions

Nevada Democrat Results

Hillary won by 5.5% and I think three story lines emerged from this race. First, open sites at the casinos, thought to favor Obama because of the Culinary Workers union endorsement, went for Clinton in seven of nine locations. So much for the union's political sway.

Second, Edwards, who's tried to build his campaign around union support and a working-class populist message, barely registered with under 4%. The conventional wisdom on Edwards' strategy was that he could win Iowa, then Nevada and South Carolina (so much for that...). This election cycle has proven time and again that it's anything but conventional.

Finally, as I said in my prediction, it seems Democrats still suck down Bill Clinton's venom and call it sugar. He's consistently denigrated himself and his presidential legacy by attacking everything under the sun (candidates, reporters, & the process itself) in his typically shameless manner. I didn't think a former president could be more self-indulgent than Jimmy Carter, but there's Bill, acting like a fool to make himself relevant again.

South Carolina GOP Results

McCain came to the state that was his undoing in 2000 and beat Huckabee by three points. This is a huge win for McCain and could (finally) translate into momentum heading into Florida and then Super Tuesday.

Conversely, the well is about to run dry for Huckabee who played every card he had, but still lost. It essentially ends his chance for the nomination, though he deserves praise for running a heck of a campaign on a slim budget (Hey Mike, it's not too late to file for a senate run!).

Thompson finished third over Romney (by half a point) and lost to McCain by a wide margin. He got in the race too late (he should have entered July 4), didn't campaign with much vigor, and seems ready to drop out.

As for Giuliani, all his marbles are in Florida. He simply won't be credible without a convincing win there (he's only beat Ron Paul once, in New Hampshire). He'll stick around for Super-Tuesday no matter what, but my guess is that it's only so he can throw his delegates behind the eventual nominee in an effort to garner an administerial position.