Predictions: Florida

The GOP primary could be decisive in multiple ways. If Giuliani loses by more than 5-7 points, he may pack up his tent and leave the race. He can afford to wait until after February 5, but I doubt his pride will allow it if he's thoroughly drummed (again) tonight. He staked his future to this state. Losing here, then possibly in New York, where he had a twenty point lead two months ago, would be too much for his ego and damage his future prospects (public or private). If he finishes behind Huckabee, he'll drop out tonight.

Huckabee is basically a non-factor here, playing for third as his numbers have sunk with Giuliani's in parallel (though for different reasons). He'll press on and hope for a strong February 5 showing but, by my estimation, even that won't be enough to give his campaign credibility. Under ideal circumstances, he'll take Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia with one or two (at best) states available thereafter. Huckabee went farther than many thought possible (including myself), but he's playing the part of John Edwards in the Republican race (playing for a role at the convention and an administerial position).

The Main Event: I think it all comes down to these two men, not only in Florida but the rest of the way. If John McCain wins tonight, which he should considering the two major state Republicans endorsing him, he will be the Republican nominee. If Mitt Romney wins, February 5 will be a free for all, with Romney holding the edge in resources. I stand by my remarks from last April, and state now that Romney's run has warranted serious consideration for VP, though the race's acrimony probably eliminates that possibility.

Prediction: McCain by a nose (2-4 points) over Romney, Giuliani in third, followed by Huckabee and Paul bringing up the rear.