Iranian Games

When I last commented (directly anyway) on Iran, August 22 was the date circled on the calendar. Since then, Hezbollah stole headlines for a while. Lebanon has embroiled the international community; 15,000 troops have been pledged but nations seem to be balking at significant contributions (France in particular). After the conflict ended, Iran stopped inspections by IAEA officials at their Natanz facility (a violation of the NPT) and then held war-games over the weekend. They’ve also produced their first patch of lowly enriched uranium.

UN Security Council Resolution 1696 was adopted on July 31 by a fourteen to one vote (Qatar voted in the minority).The measure demanded the Iranian government take steps required by the IAEA Board of Governors regarding the nuclear program or face the possibility of economic and diplomatic sanctions (acting on Article 40 of Chapter VII). Iran has threatened to withdraw from the NPT if sanctions are employed. The resolution “Confirms that such additional measures will not be necessary in the event that Iran complies with this resolution.”

As for August 22, the Iranians offered a counterproposal and said they were ready for ‘serious negotiations’ concerning the July 6 (!) offer but would not stop enrichment while haggling. They continue to express their interest in ‘talks’ (placating their biggest customers, Russia and China) while showing no interest in allowing IAEA inspectors access to requested facilities.

The problem with the ‘Security Council’ is that its parties are as, if not more, concerned about domestic economics as international security. Threats are perceived from various angles (which is a net benefit) but when the Council speaks, it must carry weight (speak softer, carry a bigger stick). I fear (and regret) Resolution 1696 will fall on a lofty pile of disregarded demands by the “last great hope for peace.” I apologize if my remarks appear vituperative (some may say hawkish); I believe the UN can be an instrument of peace but only if it is respected as an authoritative institution. The cat & mouse diplomacy, giving a little and taking it back, which Iran engages in is designed to divide and conquor by buying time.

Background Information on US-Iranian Relations