Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Why McCain Will Win

Looking ahead to Super Tuesday:

I've already said an exceptional day for Huckabee sees him taking Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Romney definitely takes Massachusetts and Utah and, with everything breaking his way, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, Alaska, and Oklahoma (though Tom Coburn is supporting McCain and is curiously forgotten when he's burnishing his conservative bona fides in debates). That leaves McCain Connecticut (supported by Lieberman), New York (supported by Giuliani), New Jersey, Delaware, Minnesota, Illinois, Arizona, and California (supported by Schwarzenegger).

That means Huckabee takes six states, Romney seven, and McCain eight. More importantly, McCain finishes with a huge delegate advantage. Unless Romney picks off Illinois, New Jersey, New York, or California from McCain, or Huckabee slips in the South, losing Missouri or Georgia, the race is all but over. The only other chance for Romney is Huckabee's withdrawal and endorsement (not bloody likely).

Republicans want to win control of at least one part of government, don't they?

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