VP Picks

First, the Democrats:

If Obama has visions of 300 electoral votes, with Virginia as his crown jewel, he'll pick Tim Kaine (though I bet he'd rather have Mark Warner). If he has any sense, it'll be Evan Bayh (though I admit my bias). Picking Joe Biden is a colossal mistake; regret would set in before a week ended.

My gut tells me Obama is dreaming of a blowout, so he'll pick Kaine.

The Republicans:

I have never understood the fascination with Tom Ridge and that idea sank fast last week after McCain floated it. Jindal is far too young, Crist probably should get it but won't because of the visual, and Carly Fiorina is a deposed CEO (attack: incompetent) of a major company (attack: evil) who's performed well but would better serve elsewhere. Which leaves, really, the only two logical choices...

Mitt Romney - someone I've spoken about before - is a proven campaigner, a serious fundraiser (filtered through the RNC), an economic whiz, and fully vetted. Despite a bitter primary, he's been a strong advocate for McCain since conceding defeat, and he conceded without an extended denouement. He's roots in Michigan make the state interesting (buoyed by Kwame Kilpatrick's troubles) and his Mormonism is an asset in Colorado and Nevada. If all three are carried, Indiana, Iowa, and New Mexico could turn blue from 2004 and McCain would still win (with Michigan as an offset). It very tempting to pick Romney, very tempting...

I think it should be Rob Portman. The guy is grade-A technocrat whose insights on the budget process would be invaluable for McCain's favorite pet project (cutting pork) and make the process more efficient and transparent. His economic prowess and mid-western charm sure up Ohio and while making a difference in Iowa (the only state McCain needs to flip based on current polling) and the entire rust belt. Basically, if McCain can carry Colorado and Nevada on his own (which he should), Portman becomes a bigger asset with less baggage.

Still, it'll be Romney.

Note: I did write a paragraph about Pawlenty, but my computer decided to freeze. I'll just say he's basically a poor-man's Portman, and less likely to carry states than either Portman or Romney.