It's Going Down, Pt. III

Part I, Part II

Iran seems to have run out of patience. They have been sent to the UN Security Council and, all of a sudden, a dramatic increase in Middle East violence.

On June 25, Hamas abducted an Israeli soldier which prompted retaliation against Hamas and its leaders, some of whom are part of a popularly elected government (the Guardian Council must laugh all the time about that bit of irony). Also, during the initial campaign to recover their soldier, Israeli rattled their saber; warplanes buzzed Bashar al-Assad's residence.

Mr. Assad must have had an epiphany while his windows shook because Lebanon and Hezbollah erupted; two Israeli soldier were abducted by Hezbollah, rocket attacks increased from both Hamas and Hezbollah, Lebanon's only international airport was bombed by Israel along with two army bases along the Syrian border, and Israel imposed a naval blockade. Mr. Assad has clearly stirred up a hornet's nest, but why?

The murder of Rafiq Hariri seemed to be Syria's highest international concern. Last winter, pundits theorized Syria could face international sanction for the murder; one month after Hariri's assassination 1.5 million Lebanese demonstrated, demanding the withdrawal of the Syrian military after nearly thirty years of occupation. Things seemed pretty grim for a regional dictator...

But the Iranians had a long-term strategy in place; they were ratcheting up pressure on Israel through proxies, providing hateful oratorical support, and pressing the international community to act in concert to stop its weapons programs. They counted on Russia and China to block any Security Council action because the Russians have a lucrative deal building nuclear facilities and the Chinese have strategic energy interests. It's all strikingly curious, but I guess it could be a coincidence.

Update: Israel has responded and the US has vetoed a UN resolution demanding a halt to military action, just as predicted in Part I. Yesterday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was quoted telling Bashar al-Assad, "If the Zionist regime (Israel) commits another stupid move and attacks Syria, this will be considered like attacking the whole Islamic world and this regime will receive a very fierce response."