More McCain Momentum?

McCain picked up two big endorsements in Florida, Gov. Charlie Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez. Better late than never? We'll see...

Dems: South Carolina Romp

Complete Results

Obama more than doubled up Clinton in total votes and took every county but two; Horry County went to Hillary and Edwards birthplace went for him. More importantly, it seems that the Clinton antics have produced a backlash, even within the party. February 5th will be exciting...

Dems, Truman & Bush

Dems Disastrous Iraq Flip-Flopping - Max Boot
What Is Bush's Place in History? - Lou Cannon and Carl Cannon

Codifying The Clinton Chorus

Is the Right Right on the Clintons? - Jonathan Chait

There is one line within the article, "there was a vast right-wing conspiracy" but no one ever explains what that precisely entails, and it's no different here. I guess it's the argument over what the meaning of 'is' is.

Clinton Campaign Hypocrisy 101

"I don't mind taking hits on my record on issues, but when somebody starts throwing mud at least we can hope it's accurate and not right out of the Republican playbook," said a front-running Hillary Clinton on November 15, 2007.

Now in a tighter race than she expected, the mud is flying so fast that many Democrats are scolding the Clintons (especially Bill, a.k.a. the new Agnew) for their bare-knuckle tactics. Their lines of attack, for example the entire Reagan episode, have been employed out of context, inaccurately or false all together. An uncommitted Jim Clyburn (D-SC) put it in the mildest of terms, saying, "(Bill) needs to chill a little bit." Our old buddy John Kerry (D-MA) was more frank (though ineloquent), saying, "I think you had an abuse of the truth, is what happened. …I mean, being an ex-president does not give you license to abuse the truth, and I think that over the last days it's been over the top."

It's the classic Bill Clinton hit job: I would never say anything negative about how my opponent is (insert negative) or (insert negative). I don't bring up (insert negative) and (insert negative) like they would. It would be unfair to judge them solely on (insert negative) or (insert negative). I don't want to inject emotional hot-button issues but (insert multiple emotional hot-button issues). But you know me, I never said a word about anyone.

GOP Debate: Notice Three Things

First, and most obviously, was the cordial tone. Especially compared to the Democrats in South Carolina, this was an extremely tame event with some heaping praise on another (McCain referred to Giuliani as "an American hero"). No talk of slum lords or begging for more time to defend themselves from attack here.

Second was Mr. Paul's question to McCain. He was clearly caught off guard and stumbled through his answer but, luckily for him, few people know anything about the Working Group on Financial Markets so I doubt the incident will hurt him.

Lastly, what was going on with Giuliani? The constant face scrunching was an unappealing exercise and his eyebrows looked painted on, and only half finished at that. I know he's no adonis, but wow, at least finish putting your face on when going out in public.

Free Trade History Lesson, Inter-Party Squabbles, And The Lesser Of Many Evils (Jape)

Look Who's Afraid of Free Trade - John Gordon
Breaking Up Is Hard to Do - Peggy Noonan
Primary Choices: John McCain - NYT - Their opening line: "We have strong disagreements with all the Republicans running for president."

Iraq: "A Carefully Orchestrated Campaign Of Misinformation" And Revisionist History

The Center for Public Integrity, which bills itself as a "nonpartisan research organization," released False Pretenses, headlined with The Orchestrated Deception On The Path To War. It starts:

President George W. Bush and seven of his administration's top officials, including Vice President Dick Cheney, National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, made at least 935 false statements in the two years following September 11, 2001, about the national security threat posed by Saddam Hussein's Iraq.

Ironically, the opening fails to mention then-Secretary of State Colin Powell, who, it later points out, made the most "false statements" about Iraq and it's WMD. Nowhere are Democrats mentioned in this "nonpartisan" document, so allow me to remind you of their statements before the war:

Hillary Clinton


John Edwards


Chuck Schumer on October 23, 2005:
Tim Russert: Based on what you now know today, do you regret having voted for the war?
Sen. Schumer: Well, no, Tim, because my vote was seen and I still see it as a need to say we must fight a strong and active war on terror.

Nancy Pelosi on November 17, 2002:
"Saddam Hussein certainly has chemical and biological weapons. There's no question about that."

John Rockefeller on October 10, 2002:
"There is no doubt in my mind that Saddam Hussein is a despicable dictator, a war criminal, a regional menace, and a real and growing threat to the United States."

An abundance of Democrats:

For more, MUCH MORE, from nearly every prominent Democrat, including those from President Clinton's administration, check this website. Ah, selective memory from lily-livered liberals!

2008 Presidential Race

Updated Rankings

Fred's Done

Fred Thompson joined the race in September and confirmed the rumors that he didn't have the passion for vigorous campaigning (belly fire) by exiting after less than six months. He said from the beginning that he didn't wait too long, but he clearly did as he only recently began getting his footing (in debates, on the trail). Here's one of his earliest forays (hitting Michael Moore) which stoked conservative clamoring for his run:

The End Of The Republican Party? Hah!

Republican Voters vs. Establishment - David Brooks
South Carolina's Big Loser: Talk Radio - Michael Medved

Market Motivators

There are two factors that drive financial markets: greed and fear. The doomsdayers have been crowing for years, Dems have switched focus from Iraq to sub-prime foreclosures, and the world is finally believing that Americans are dismal and dismayed. It all harkens back to a strategy mentioned in one of my very first posts; repeating it enough will make it so.

Congratulations antagonists! Claiming recession- as opposed to the proper term, correction- seems to be creating one of global proportions.

A Dream We Can All Share

Nevada And South Carolina: Almost Perfect Predictions

Nevada Democrat Results

Hillary won by 5.5% and I think three story lines emerged from this race. First, open sites at the casinos, thought to favor Obama because of the Culinary Workers union endorsement, went for Clinton in seven of nine locations. So much for the union's political sway.

Second, Edwards, who's tried to build his campaign around union support and a working-class populist message, barely registered with under 4%. The conventional wisdom on Edwards' strategy was that he could win Iowa, then Nevada and South Carolina (so much for that...). This election cycle has proven time and again that it's anything but conventional.

Finally, as I said in my prediction, it seems Democrats still suck down Bill Clinton's venom and call it sugar. He's consistently denigrated himself and his presidential legacy by attacking everything under the sun (candidates, reporters, & the process itself) in his typically shameless manner. I didn't think a former president could be more self-indulgent than Jimmy Carter, but there's Bill, acting like a fool to make himself relevant again.

South Carolina GOP Results

McCain came to the state that was his undoing in 2000 and beat Huckabee by three points. This is a huge win for McCain and could (finally) translate into momentum heading into Florida and then Super Tuesday.

Conversely, the well is about to run dry for Huckabee who played every card he had, but still lost. It essentially ends his chance for the nomination, though he deserves praise for running a heck of a campaign on a slim budget (Hey Mike, it's not too late to file for a senate run!).

Thompson finished third over Romney (by half a point) and lost to McCain by a wide margin. He got in the race too late (he should have entered July 4), didn't campaign with much vigor, and seems ready to drop out.

As for Giuliani, all his marbles are in Florida. He simply won't be credible without a convincing win there (he's only beat Ron Paul once, in New Hampshire). He'll stick around for Super-Tuesday no matter what, but my guess is that it's only so he can throw his delegates behind the eventual nominee in an effort to garner an administerial position.

Predictions: Nevada And South Carolina

Dems: Obama has been closing in Nevada and the court ruling allowing open caucus sites at casinos is a big plus for him. Unfortunately for him, Bill Clinton is still an effective figure in Democrat circles and his onslaughts have been relentless. I say Hillary holds on to win by 5 points. Edwards loses by double digits (again) and starts writing a withdrawal speech to be read after his inevitable thumping in South Carolina.

GOP: McCain should win but his message seems out of sync since Michigan and may allow Huckabee to pull an upset on the backs of evangelicals and nativists. Let's say Huckabee by a point or two, though it could easily be just the opposite. Thompson MUST finish third to continue, but even that doesn't seem like enough and I think he'll call it quits afterwards. Romney finishes fourth, followed by Paul and then Giuliani, who's limping all the way to Florida.

Obama: The Apostate (Jape)

Wild Bill Attacks The Media Again! (Not Fox News This Time)

The Race Card, Religious Politics, and Economic Stimulus

Black Dreams, White Liberals - Charles Krauthammer
Why Huckabee Won't Break Out - Rich Lowry
No Stimulus Gimmicks, Please - Bill Thomas & Alex Brill

Michigan: The Race Is Wide Open

Complete Results

GOP: The favorite son came home and got a win he desperately needed. Mitt Romney handily beat John McCain in Michigan and now all eyes turn to South Carolina, where it's Fred Thompson who needs to display his viability (McCain also needs a strong showing or his campaign may quickly collapse). The real winner from all this confusion is Rudy Giuliani, whose late state strategy will be pure genius if he can pull it off.

Bottom line: Buckle up. This wild ride will probably last for quite some time and could go all the way to the convention floor.

Michigan Prediction

Romney, January 11, at Macomb Community College: "If we can’t win here, we can’t win anywhere."

Me, January 8, this blog: "Michigan looks like Romney's Little Bighorn and, without a convincing win there, he'll be playing the role of Custer."

Romney can certainly afford to go on after Michigan, but it'll be a fruitless endeavor. McCain will win the state by 2-4 points with Huckabee placing third and a muddled finish. Let's say it's Thompson in fourth (he looked sharp last debate and seems to be hitting his campaigning stride; if he'd begun in early July, this would be a very different race), Paul fifth, and Giuliani pulling up the rear (which is especially disappointing for someone who lead in Michigan as recently as last November).

2008 Presidential Race

Updated Rankings

The race no longer needs twenty one entries, so eliminated candidates will be crossed out.

New Hampshire: Half Right & Half Wrong (Like Everyone Else)

Complete Results

GOP: It played out as expected; McCain by 5.5% and Romney's last stand is Tuesday in Michigan. Huckabee won third by a point more than expected, Rudy remained on the back burner, and Paul continued to collect the 1-in-12 Pat Buchanan isolationist vote. Thompson finished with just over 1% and needs a first or second in South Carolina to extend his candidacy.

Dems: This upset was not based on one false poll; ALL the polls leading into Tuesday, coupled with Iowa's momentum, said Obama would win. Even Terry McAuliffe was sounding like part of a beaten campaign Tuesday afternoon, welcoming a staff shakeup (enter the old hands of Carville and Begala) and saying they'd go on no matter what happened. But something strange happened on the way to the ballet box; enthusiasm for Obama didn't translate into votes. Women, which he won in Iowa, chose Clinton by double digits. Add in a balmy winter day (60+ degrees compared to freezing temperatures in Iowa) and it nullified Obama's youth vote with Clinton's geriatric vote. Edwards needs to get out while he can salvage some dignity and Richardson, well, we'll soon see if he starts auditioning for chief attack dog (VP).

Bottom line: Same as I said going in...

Teary Eyes, Fairytale Daggers, And The Devil You Know

Prior to last night's astonishing result in New Hampshire (good cop/bad cop obviously worked better there than Iowa), Republicans were relishing the seeming demise of Clinton's campaign. The implosion was sweet revenge after years of confrontation but, remember, better the devil you know than the devil you don't. Obama, as Bill Clinton has said, is a roll of the dice, an unknown quantity, and could be dangerously formidable in a general election (see: A Commentary Conclusion Confirmed?).

New Hampshire Predictions

GOP: McCain beats Romney by 5-8 points, depending on how many independents get swept up in Obama-mania. Afterward, Michigan looks like Romney's Little Bighorn and, without a convincing win there, he'll be playing the role of Custer. A third place finish for Huckabee is a victory in this state, but Giuliani will keep it close (within 2 points) and an upset is a major coup. Paul finishes 2-4% behind them. Thompson is lucky to surpass 4%.

Dems: Obama has another big night bolstered by 60% of independents and wins by at least 7 points (likely 10-12). A wounded Clinton will try to marginalize the significance of two small state losses by immediately shifting the focus to Nevada and South Carolina. Everyone seems to realize the Edwards campaign is kaput except, of course, John Edwards. Richardson continues his unremarkable run and may even start hitting Edwards in a contest for the two slot.

Bottom line: The Democrat race consolidates with two realistic candidates remaining as the GOP field is flung further open (music to Rudy's ears).

What's Your World View?

While reading an article yesterday, I came across something fascinating:

Foreign policy still opens up visible fissures, as it did four years ago, when the Democrats stood divided between doves and those like Senator Joseph Lieberman, who believed, as President Bush did, that the world is a dangerous place best policed by a steely American imperium. - Michael Powell, "Democrats in Sync, Mostly" 1/6/2008.

It's an assertion that fundamentally paints anyone who views the world as a dangerous place as a stooge of Emperor Bush (jape, though Hugo Chavez might agree). It further asserts that America's pursuit of a more peaceful world- through multilateral strategic alliances and global military partnerships- is merely unyielding imperial coercion. The shot at Joe Lieberman is particularly acute because he's been an outspoken hawk (and bete noire to doves). Let's see another opinion...

We face a global terrorist movement of many groups, funded from different sources with separate agendas, but all committed to assaulting the United States and free and open societies around the globe.

Victory in the war on terror requires a combination of American determination and international cooperation on all fronts. It requires the ability and willingness to direct immediate, effective military action when the capture or destruction of terrorist groups and their leaders is possible.

Defending America against attack at all costs. First, the world should be on notice that we will take every possible measure to defend ourselves against the possibility of attack by unconventional arms. If such an attack appears imminent, we will do everything necessary to stop it. If such a strike does occur, we will respond with overwhelming and devastating force. - 2004 Democrat Party Platform

For another opinion, see Dean, Kerry, And Forgotten Beliefs.

Three GOP Reads

GOP Should Tread Carefully on Immigration - Victor Davis Hanson
For GOP, Iowa Better Be an Aberration - Stuart Rothenberg
Only McCain Can Beat Obama - Richard Baehr

Iowa: Why The Predictions Missed

Complete Results

Despite the cold weather, there was huge turnout for both parties. Romney's organizational advantage did not translate into expected votes and his zenith was, indeed, in Ames. Iowa's evangelicals strongly supported Huckabee, created his plurality, and failed to see through his political hucksterism (jape) concerning negative ads. Thompson somehow remained a vessel for GOPers to pin their hopes and cost the more substantive McCain at least five points.

Edwards spent six years campaigning in Iowa only to finish two point worse than he did in 2004 (a death knell) and Obama continued to ride an historic wave of growing support. Clinton's nine point loss is all the more devastating because of Tom Vilsack's unwavering support (read: VP angling). The race is now exclusively confined to the top three- Biden & Dodd have withdrawn- though Richardson is (predictably) staying in the fray.

Bottom line: Huckabee's bubble is taking slightly longer to burst than I expected but, all in all, my evaluations from early December seem on the money (see: Republican Rapid Fire & Democrat Rapid Fire).

Iowa Predictions

GOP: Romney survives the Huckabee phenomenon, but just barely. McCain takes the headlines by finishing third with almost 18% and Thompson drops out after finishing behind Paul. Giuliani is (or continues to be) a non-factor as Florida seems a long way off.

Dems: Edwards beats Obama by a point with Clinton finishing 5-7 points behind the leaders. Biden has great night and finishes with 6-8% while Dodd begins packing for Connecticut. Richardson stalls, but hangs around in a vain attempt to snag the two spot on the eventual ticket.

Related: Huckabee's Impending Demise, Democrat Rapid Fire, Republican Rapid Fire, Huckabee's Impact

The Economy: It's Still Good

So Much Good Economic News, So Little Cheer - Kevin Hassett

Related: Faux War On The Middle Class, Pt. II, Economic Paradigm, Market Jitters, Tax Rhetoric, Economic Reality, Updated Economic Update, Economic Indicators

Bhutto & Bin Laden

While many fawn over and canonize Benazir Bhutto, remember that she was a politician interested in power and her own self-interests. Though the closest thing to a liberal democrat that Pakistan offers, she thrived more because of her dynastic personality cult than commitment to representative constitutional government. The appointment of her 19-year-old son as chairman of her party underscores this reality.

Another figurehead, Osama bin Laden, is trying to rally his followers. His words create clarity for listeners concerning his dark vision, desiring blood in place of peace."I assure our kin in Palestine especially that we shall expand our jihad ... We will not recognize even one inch for Jews in the land of Palestine as other Muslim leaders have," announced bin Laden in his latest fulmination. Implicit is his criticism of Mahmoud Abbas and other interested in fulfilling the wishes of the Palestinian people. These ramblings are necessary as American successes mount.

Reiding The Tea Leaves

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has come a long way since April 19, 2007, when he said, "This war is lost, and this surge is not accomplishing anything." He sang a different tune yesterday, admitting, "There are a lot of reasons the surge certainly hasn't hurt. It's helped. I recognize that." This is a minor concession from a party that's rooted for defeat since it initially became politically invested during the summer of 2003.

The new line of attack is against the sluggishness of Iraqi politics. This is totally disingenuous considering their familiarity with the slow grind that is political progress, and certainly not unique to Iraq (see the American history, from the Articles of Confederation to the failure implementing the Six-In-06 agenda).

Related: Iraq: A Miserable Failure?, Dean Screams Absurdity, There They Go Again, Two Doses Of Reality, Time To Admit It: The Surge Worked*

Past The Water's Edge & Beyond Logic

Does Gore Know What He's Talking About? - Ed Koch

2008 Presidential Race

Updated Rankings

Huckabee's numbers are softer than Thompson's were prior to joining the race and Clinton is back on her heels as evidenced by actions “right out of the Republican playbook” (think Obama, cocaine, and kindergarten ambition).

Baseball's Black Eye

The Complete Mitchell Report

Related: Steroid Scorn

Faux War On The Middle Class, Pt. II

Lou Dobbs Winning Would Be a Disaster - Mort Kondracke

Related: Lou Dobbs' Faux War On The Middle Class

Sober NIE Analysis

The Dunderheaded NIE Public Roll-Out - Dennis Ross

Huckabee's Impending Demise

Despite a 20 point rise in Iowa over the past two months, there are several reasons Mike Huckabee will falter:

1. Wayne DeMond - it's clear Huckabee pressed for the parole of the convicted rapist and two board members say he outright pressured them into DeMond's release. Afterwards, DeMond was convicted (again) of sexually assaulting and murdering one Missouri woman and suspected in the murder of another, this time a pregnant woman. Three horrendous crimes and it sounds worse than Willie Horton to me...
2. Taxes, Taxes, Taxes - it's always bad when the punchline is, "worse than Bill Clinton." The Club For Growth has detailed the multitude of tax increases supported by Huckabee. It's a sad tale for a GOP primary when a governor from Massachusetts is running on a better tax record than the one from Arkansas.
3. AIDS Ignorance - his comments from 1992 are so out of line, so outdated and so naive that they simply boggle the mind. His defense of the statement is even worse, especially after President Reagan drew ire for his ignorance on the same issue years earlier. The surgeon general published this brochure in 1988.
4. Unless his impressive polling is accompanied by equally impressive contributions, the numbers are irrelevant. At the end of September, his cash on hand was a meager $651,301 which isn't nearly enough to respond the inevitable wave of criticism absorbed by a front-runner. Romney has to hit him hard and you can bet that he will.
5. As Howard Fineman said, there is "his utter lack of foreign policy or military experience or exposure. In the end that may be fatal." I'm sure John McCain will begin hammering that point home, contrasting it with his wealth of experience.

To me, it all adds up to too many fights on too many fronts without adequate resources or organization. He may win Iowa, but that will be the high point of his campaign and will be stunted in New Hampshire five days later. It's almost midnight for this fairytale campaign.

A Crazed Commentator

It's not often that I reference the The Huffington Post, but Lawrence O'Donnell Loses His Ever-Loving Mind on McLaughlin took the words right out of my mouth.

Follow-up: Romney's Big Speech

Judge for yourself:

Romney's Big Speech

Two things: First, by waiting until his campaign was struggling, Romney has placed undue pressure on himself and his pronouncement. Second, the additional burden of expectation is nearly insurmountable when being compared with the semi-mythical John F. Kennedy. In any case, he's put himself in a very delicate position.

JFK's Address:

Three Things To Do Everyday

Jimmy Valvano's 1993 ESPY speech (it runs about 10 minutes but be sure to watch the first two minutes, at least.

Related: A Little Something About People

Election 08' - Spot On Analysis

Worst Mistakes of Election '08 - Tom Bevan

2008 Presidential Race

Updated Rankings

Democrat Rapid Fire

• Hillary Clinton - Slipping; the more she pours on Obama, the more politically-entrenched she seems (even leftists are piling on).
• Barack Obama - Surging; he's (finally) hitting back, without vitriol, and it seems to be working... But can he sustain momentum?
• John Edwards - Stammering; he needs to win in Iowa or it's all over. He may pull out a miracle, given the format, but I sincerely doubt it.
• Bill Richardson - Coarse; at this point, he's playing for VP but his loose tongue diminishes any chance at such a nod.
• Chris Dodd - Flummoxed; only slightly more appealing than Tommy Thompson.
• Joe Biden - Incidental; he wants to be Secretary of State in a Democrat administration.
• Dennis Kucinich - Genuine; he walks and talks like the base, but everyone knows he can't win in a general election.

Republican Rapid Fire

My thoughts on the GOP contenders with a month until Iowa:

• Rudy Giuliani - Stagnant; watch for an inundation of salacious stories and suspicious circumstances.
• Mitt Romney - Inauthentic; Romney - Forget POTUS & Mitt's Zenith now seem Delphic.
• John McCain - Steady (if not repetitive); must win New Hampshire or be within a point or two.
• Fred Thompson - Insufficient; his campaign seems better suited for yesteryear, not 2008.
• Mike Huckabee - Ephemeral overachievement; the scrutiny (read: attacks) will now begin in earnest (his rise means he won't run for the Senate, consarnit!).
• Ron Paul - Befuddling; he is, by far, the best at enunciating Democrat policy on trade and national security.
  

Lou Dobbs' Faux War On The Middle Class

Don't Listen to The Pessimists on America - David Brooks

Stem-Cells

Bush's Wisdom on Stem Cells - Rich Lowry

Obstacles are the engines of innovation and adhering to morality does not equate to an aversion to science. Everyone is eager for new remedies, but cautious optimism is better than wild eyed euphoria.

Huckabee's Impact

Mike Huckabee may foil Mitt Romney's run, but he can not win the Republican nomination. He's throwing a monkey wrench into Romney's traditionalist election strategy, consisting of a strong strong start in Iowa and New Hampshire, and an upset would all but eliminate Romney.

Mostly, this meteoric rise helps John McCain. I've expected a resurgence from his campaign for some time now, and competitive Iowa caucuses increase the chances for another shocker in New Hampshire. McCain doesn't need to win either contest but strong showings will create momentum for the elder statesman.

Unfortunately, McCain is still an anathema to ideological conservatives (thanks to immigration and campaign finance reform) and his forthright foresight, intellectual honesty and worldly understanding are ignored. I personally think he's the best candidate to assume the presidency, but many barriers remain blocking his path.

Related: Mitt's Zenith, Republican Branding Problem, Romney & Obama - Forget POTUS, A Commentary Conclusion Confirmed?, Republican Logic (Excluding Traditional Isolationists)

Noun, Verb, 9/11

Remember this, Joe Biden: the first candidate to use 9/11 in a 2008 campaign ad was a Democrat.

Fear-monger!

Worse Than A Bad Debate

Hillary's poor performance in Philadelphia created an opening in the Democratic race. Iowa is a statistical toss-up, Obama is gaining confidence in his ability to attack without being seen as malicious, and after finally putting a dreadful news cycle behind her, the media is festering another unflattering analogy about her calculating nature...

Nixon 1968, Clinton 2008 - John Ellis
Hillary Cloaks Her Nepotism in Feminism - Maureen Dowd

The resemblance is uncanny!

Time To Admit It: The Surge Worked*

Life Has Gotten Better in Baghdad - Rod Nordland
Violence in Iraq Continues to Drop - Buckley & Gordon
Looking at Iraq in Macro-time - Michael Barone

* "I think (this) is a dead end," said Sen. Clinton about Gen. Petraeus's strategy during his confirmation hearings.

The Media & Their Dirty Little Secret About Iraq

There is one moment media outlets - and Democrats - have anxiously anticipated, each straining to prove they've captured definative defeat in imagry, whether for their own edification or a "We told you so" apogee.

Just modernize the scene...

Related: Two Doses Of Reality

Just For The Record

While Hugo Chavez is attempting to solidify his authoritarian grip on Venezuela, let's remember who stood beside him...

Two Related And Previously Discussed

When Good News is No News - Victor Davis Hanson
Not Good at Nation Building - Robert Novak

As previously mentioned: Iraq: A Miserable Failure?

2008 Presidential Race

Updated Rankings

Three Good Reads

Neoconservatism: Past, Present, Future - Joshua Muravchik
Democrats Have Left Kennedy Behind - Matt Bondy
Burma: Why the West Will Do Nothing - David Warren

Articulated Anti-Americanism & Politicized Children

The Unspeakable American Culture - Jonah Goldberg
Sleepwalking Toward DD-Day - George Will

Visceral Willy

Notice the confrontational posture and scornful tone of Mr. Clinton. Not exactly calm and collected.

Professorial Proclamations

In Defense of Lobbying - Ross Baker (from RU)
The 4 Boneheaded Biases of Stupid Voters - Bryan Caplan

Related: Lamentations On Lobbyists, Economic Paradigm, Capitalism: The Abridged Version

Perspective: Debating War & Peace

The American Crisis

Thomas Paine, 1780

These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value. Heaven knows how to put a proper price upon its goods; and it would be strange indeed if so celestial an article as FREEDOM should not be highly rated. Britain, with an army to enforce her tyranny, has declared that she has a right (not only to TAX) but "to BIND us in ALL CASES WHATSOEVER," and if being bound in that manner, is not slavery, then is there not such a thing as slavery upon earth. Even the expression is impious; for so unlimited a power can belong only to God.

Whether the independence of the continent was declared too soon, or delayed too long, I will not now enter into as an argument; my own simple opinion is, that had it been eight months earlier, it would have been much better. We did not make a proper use of last winter, neither could we, while we were in a dependent state. However, the fault, if it were one, was all our own*; we have none to blame but ourselves. But no great deal is lost yet. All that Howe has been doing for this month past, is rather a ravage than a conquest, which the spirit of the Jerseys, a year ago, would have quickly repulsed, and which time and a little resolution will soon recover.

* The present winter is worth an age, if rightly employed; but, if lost or neglected, the whole continent will partake of the evil; and there is no punishment that man does not deserve, be he who, or what, or where he will, that may be the means of sacrificing a season so precious and useful.

I have as little superstition in me as any man living, but my secret opinion has ever been, and still is, that God Almighty will not give up a people to military destruction, or leave them unsupportedly to perish, who have so earnestly and so repeatedly sought to avoid the calamities of war, by every decent method which wisdom could invent. Neither have I so much of the infidel in me, as to suppose that He has relinquished the government of the world, and given us up to the care of devils; and as I do not, I cannot see on what grounds the king of Britain can look up to heaven for help against us: a common murderer, a highwayman, or a house-breaker, has as good a pretence as he.

'Tis surprising to see how rapidly a panic will sometimes run through a country. All nations and ages have been subject to them. Britain has trembled like an ague at the report of a French fleet of flat-bottomed boats; and in the fourteenth [fifteenth] century the whole English army, after ravaging the kingdom of France, was driven back like men petrified with fear; and this brave exploit was performed by a few broken forces collected and headed by a woman, Joan of Arc. Would that heaven might inspire some Jersey maid to spirit up her countrymen, and save her fair fellow sufferers from ravage and ravishment! Yet panics, in some cases, have their uses; they produce as much good as hurt. Their duration is always short; the mind soon grows through them, and acquires a firmer habit than before. But their peculiar advantage is, that they are the touchstones of sincerity and hypocrisy, and bring things and men to light, which might otherwise have lain forever undiscovered. In fact, they have the same effect on secret traitors, which an imaginary apparition would have upon a private murderer. They sift out the hidden thoughts of man, and hold them up in public to the world. Many a disguised Tory has lately shown his head, that shall penitentially solemnize with curses the day on which Howe arrived upon the Delaware.

As I was with the troops at Fort Lee, and marched with them to the edge of Pennsylvania, I am well acquainted with many circumstances, which those who live at a distance know but little or nothing of. Our situation there was exceedingly cramped, the place being a narrow neck of land between the North River and the Hackensack. Our force was inconsiderable, being not one-fourth so great as Howe could bring against us. We had no army at hand to have relieved the garrison, had we shut ourselves up and stood on our defence. Our ammunition, light artillery, and the best part of our stores, had been removed, on the apprehension that Howe would endeavor to penetrate the Jerseys, in which case Fort Lee could be of no use to us; for it must occur to every thinking man, whether in the army or not, that these kind of field forts are only for temporary purposes, and last in use no longer than the enemy directs his force against the particular object which such forts are raised to defend. Such was our situation and condition at Fort Lee on the morning of the 20th of November, when an officer arrived with information that the enemy with 200 boats had landed about seven miles above; Major General [Nathaniel] Green, who commanded the garrison, immediately ordered them under arms, and sent express to General Washington at the town of Hackensack, distant by the way of the ferry = six miles. Our first object was to secure the bridge over the Hackensack, which laid up the river between the enemy and us, about six miles from us, and three from them. General Washington arrived in about three-quarters of an hour, and marched at the head of the troops towards the bridge, which place I expected we should have a brush for; however, they did not choose to dispute it with us, and the greatest part of our troops went over the bridge, the rest over the ferry, except some which passed at a mill on a small creek, between the bridge and the ferry, and made their way through some marshy grounds up to the town of Hackensack, and there passed the river. We brought off as much baggage as the wagons could contain, the rest was lost. The simple object was to bring off the garrison, and march them on till they could be strengthened by the Jersey or Pennsylvania militia, so as to be enabled to make a stand. We staid four days at Newark, collected our out-posts with some of the Jersey militia, and marched out twice to meet the enemy, on being informed that they were advancing, though our numbers were greatly inferior to theirs. Howe, in my little opinion, committed a great error in generalship in not throwing a body of forces off from Staten Island through Amboy, by which means he might have seized all our stores at Brunswick, and intercepted our march into Pennsylvania; but if we believe the power of hell to be limited, we must likewise believe that their agents are under some providential control.

I shall not now attempt to give all the particulars of our retreat to the Delaware; suffice it for the present to say, that both officers and men, though greatly harassed and fatigued, frequently without rest, covering, or provision, the inevitable consequences of a long retreat, bore it with a manly and martial spirit. All their wishes centred in one, which was, that the country would turn out and help them to drive the enemy back. Voltaire has remarked that King William never appeared to full advantage but in difficulties and in action; the same remark may be made on General Washington, for the character fits him. There is a natural firmness in some minds which cannot be unlocked by trifles, but which, when unlocked, discovers a cabinet of fortitude; and I reckon it among those kind of public blessings, which we do not immediately see, that God hath blessed him with uninterrupted health, and given him a mind that can even flourish upon care.

I shall conclude this paper with some miscellaneous remarks on the state of our affairs; and shall begin with asking the following question, Why is it that the enemy have left the New England provinces, and made these middle ones the seat of war? The answer is easy: New England is not infested with Tories, and we are. I have been tender in raising the cry against these men, and used numberless arguments to show them their danger, but it will not do to sacrifice a world either to their folly or their baseness. The period is now arrived, in which either they or we must change our sentiments, or one or both must fall. And what is a Tory? Good God! what is he? I should not be afraid to go with a hundred Whigs against a thousand Tories, were they to attempt to get into arms. Every Tory is a coward; for servile, slavish, self-interested fear is the foundation of Toryism; and a man under such influence, though he may be cruel, never can be brave.

But, before the line of irrecoverable separation be drawn between us, let us reason the matter together: Your conduct is an invitation to the enemy, yet not one in a thousand of you has heart enough to join him. Howe is as much deceived by you as the American cause is injured by you. He expects you will all take up arms, and flock to his standard, with muskets on your shoulders. Your opinions are of no use to him, unless you support him personally, for 'tis soldiers, and not Tories, that he wants.

I once felt all that kind of anger, which a man ought to feel, against the mean principles that are held by the Tories: a noted one, who kept a tavern at Amboy, was standing at his door, with as pretty a child in his hand, about eight or nine years old, as I ever saw, and after speaking his mind as freely as he thought was prudent, finished with this unfatherly expression, "Well! give me peace in my day." Not a man lives on the continent but fully believes that a separation must some time or other finally take place, and a generous parent should have said, "If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my child may have peace;" and this single reflection, well applied, is sufficient to awaken every man to duty. Not a place upon earth might be so happy as America. Her situation is remote from all the wrangling world, and she has nothing to do but to trade with them. A man can distinguish himself between temper and principle, and I am as confident, as I am that God governs the world, that America will never be happy till she gets clear of foreign dominion. Wars, without ceasing, will break out till that period arrives, and the continent must in the end be conqueror; for though the flame of liberty may sometimes cease to shine, the coal can never expire.

America did not, nor does not want force; but she wanted a proper application of that force. Wisdom is not the purchase of a day, and it is no wonder that we should err at the first setting off. From an excess of tenderness, we were unwilling to raise an army, and trusted our cause to the temporary defence of a well-meaning militia. A summer's experience has now taught us better; yet with those troops, while they were collected, we were able to set bounds to the progress of the enemy, and, thank God! they are again assembling. I always considered militia as the best troops in the world for a sudden exertion, but they will not do for a long campaign. Howe, it is probable, will make an attempt on this city [Philadelphia]; should he fail on this side the Delaware, he is ruined. If he succeeds, our cause is not ruined. He stakes all on his side against a part on ours; admitting he succeeds, the consequence will be, that armies from both ends of the continent will march to assist their suffering friends in the middle states; for he cannot go everywhere, it is impossible. I consider Howe as the greatest enemy the Tories have; he is bringing a war into their country, which, had it not been for him and partly for themselves, they had been clear of. Should he now be expelled, I wish with all the devotion of a Christian, that the names of Whig and Tory may never more be mentioned; but should the Tories give him encouragement to come, or assistance if he come, I as sincerely wish that our next year's arms may expel them from the continent, and the Congress appropriate their possessions to the relief of those who have suffered in well-doing. A single successful battle next year will settle the whole. America could carry on a two years' war by the confiscation of the property of disaffected persons, and be made happy by their expulsion. Say not that this is revenge, call it rather the soft resentment of a suffering people, who, having no object in view but the good of all, have staked their own all upon a seemingly doubtful event. Yet it is folly to argue against determined hardness; eloquence may strike the ear, and the language of sorrow draw forth the tear of compassion, but nothing can reach the heart that is steeled with prejudice.

Quitting this class of men, I turn with the warm ardor of a friend to those who have nobly stood, and are yet determined to stand the matter out: I call not upon a few, but upon all: not on this state or that state, but on every state: up and help us; lay your shoulders to the wheel; better have too much force than too little, when so great an object is at stake. Let it be told to the future world, that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive, that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet and to repulse it. Say not that thousands are gone, turn out your tens of thousands; throw not the burden of the day upon Providence, but "show your faith by your works," that God may bless you. It matters not where you live, or what rank of life you hold, the evil or the blessing will reach you all. The far and the near, the home counties and the back, the rich and the poor, will suffer or rejoice alike. The heart that feels not now is dead; the blood of his children will curse his cowardice, who shrinks back at a time when a little might have saved the whole, and made them happy. I love the man that can smile in trouble, that can gather strength from distress, and grow brave by reflection. 'Tis the business of little minds to shrink; but he whose heart is firm, and whose conscience approves his conduct, will pursue his principles unto death. My own line of reasoning is to myself as straight and clear as a ray of light. Not all the treasures of the world, so far as I believe, could have induced me to support an offensive war, for I think it murder; but if a thief breaks into my house, burns and destroys my property, and kills or threatens to kill me, or those that are in it, and to "bind me in all cases whatsoever" to his absolute will, am I to suffer it? What signifies it to me, whether he who does it is a king or a common man; my countryman or not my countryman; whether it be done by an individual villain, or an army of them? If we reason to the root of things we shall find no difference; neither can any just cause be assigned why we should punish in the one case and pardon in the other. Let them call me rebel and welcome, I feel no concern from it; but I should suffer the misery of devils, were I to make a whore of my soul by swearing allegiance to one whose character is that of a sottish, stupid, stubborn, worthless, brutish man. I conceive likewise a horrid idea in receiving mercy from a being, who at the last day shall be shrieking to the rocks and mountains to cover him, and fleeing with terror from the orphan, the widow, and the slain of America.

There are cases which cannot be overdone by language, and this is one. There are persons, too, who see not the full extent of the evil which threatens them; they solace themselves with hopes that the enemy, if he succeed, will be merciful. It is the madness of folly, to expect mercy from those who have refused to do justice; and even mercy, where conquest is the object, is only a trick of war; the cunning of the fox is as murderous as the violence of the wolf, and we ought to guard equally against both. Howe's first object is, partly by threats and partly by promises, to terrify or seduce the people to deliver up their arms and receive mercy. The ministry recommended the same plan to Gage, and this is what the tories call making their peace, "a peace which passeth all understanding" indeed! A peace which would be the immediate forerunner of a worse ruin than any we have yet thought of. Ye men of Pennsylvania, do reason upon these things! Were the back counties to give up their arms, they would fall an easy prey to the Indians, who are all armed: this perhaps is what some Tories would not be sorry for. Were the home counties to deliver up their arms, they would be exposed to the resentment of the back counties who would then have it in their power to chastise their defection at pleasure. And were any one state to give up its arms, that state must be garrisoned by all Howe's army of Britons and Hessians to preserve it from the anger of the rest. Mutual fear is the principal link in the chain of mutual love, and woe be to that state that breaks the compact. Howe is mercifully inviting you to barbarous destruction, and men must be either rogues or fools that will not see it. I dwell not upon the vapors of imagination; I bring reason to your ears, and, in language as plain as A, B, C, hold up truth to your eyes.

I thank God, that I fear not. I see no real cause for fear. I know our situation well, and can see the way out of it. While our army was collected, Howe dared not risk a battle; and it is no credit to him that he decamped from the White Plains, and waited a mean opportunity to ravage the defenceless Jerseys; but it is great credit to us, that, with a handful of men, we sustained an orderly retreat for near an hundred miles, brought off our ammunition, all our field pieces, the greatest part of our stores, and had four rivers to pass. None can say that our retreat was precipitate, for we were near three weeks in performing it, that the country might have time to come in. Twice we marched back to meet the enemy, and remained out till dark. The sign of fear was not seen in our camp, and had not some of the cowardly and disaffected inhabitants spread false alarms through the country, the Jerseys had never been ravaged. Once more we are again collected and collecting; our new army at both ends of the continent is recruiting fast, and we shall be able to open the next campaign with sixty thousand men, well armed and clothed. This is our situation, and who will may know it. By perseverance and fortitude we have the prospect of a glorious issue; by cowardice and submission, the sad choice of a variety of evils- a ravaged country- a depopulated city- habitations without safety, and slavery without hope- our homes turned into barracks and bawdy-houses for Hessians, and a future race to provide for, whose fathers we shall doubt of. Look on this picture and weep over it! and if there yet remains one thoughtless wretch who believes it not, let him suffer it unlamented.

On MoveOn

Behind Antiwar Ad, a Powerful Liberal Group - M. Luo and J. Zeleny
General Petraeus or General Betray Us? - MoveOn.org

Related: Alito, Part V: A Deceptive Liar?, The Cowardice Continues, How Times Have Changed, There They Go Again, The General's View

Before & After

Related: 9/11, Never Forget

The General's View

How We're Doing in Iraq - Gen. David Petraeus

Related: Two Doses Of Reality, Dear Mr. President (And Steely Republicans)

The Front-Runners

Why the Conservatives Like Rudy - Jennifer Rubin
Hillary & The Goldilocks Campaign - Roger Simon

2008 Presidential Race

Updated Rankings

The New Soviet State

Russia Under Putin: The Making of a Neo-KGB State - The Economist

Related: Russia, Putin Picks His Side?, Europe's Last Dictator

Staring Into The Abyss

Showdown in Pakistan - Robert Novak
Syria as Al Qaeda's Travel Agent - Sen. Joseph Lieberman

2008 Presidential Race

Updated Rankings

Tommy Thompson withdrew from the race after the Ames straw poll, realizing a sixth place finish (with the absence of McCain and Giuliani) was his death knell. If only Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, and Ron Paul had a similar revelation...

Mitt's Zenith

Ames Republican Straw Poll Results:

1. Mitt Romney - 31.6%
2. Mike Huckabee - 18.1%
3. Sam Brownback - 15.3%
4. Tom Tancredo - 13.7%
5. Ron Paul - 9.1%
6. Tommy Thompson - 7.3%
7. Fred Thompson - 1.4%
8. Rudy Giuliani - 1.3%
9. Duncan Hunter - 1.2%
10. John McCain - 0.7%
11. John Cox - 0.3%

Mr. Romney's plurality cost him about $450 per vote. Mr. Huckabee's performance was far more impressive considering his paltry financial support. He's reported $1.3 Million through the first two quarters, which is less than Mr. Romney spent on this singular event (estimated at about $2 Million).

Related: Republican Branding Problem, Romney & Obama - Forget POTUS

Economic Paradigm

Media Promotes False Pessimism on Economy - Brian Wesbury

Related: Market Jitters, Tax Rhetoric, Economic Reality, Updated Economic Update, Economic Indicators

2008 Presidential Race

Updated Rankings

What's Always Forgotten

The Nation Needs Infrastructure Work - Mort Kondracke

RE: A War We Just Might Win

Democrats' Real Big Problem - Byron York

Two Perspectives

A Partnership for the Ages - Gordon Brown
A War We Just Might Win - Michael O'Hanlon & Kenneth Pollack

Krauthammer On Obama

Strike Two for Obama - Charles Krauthammer

Related: Romney & Obama - Forget POTUS

Cronyism And Ideology Trumping Competence And Justice

President Clinton's Pardons

Scooter Libby: Dems React In Hyperbole

• "Accountability has been in short supply in the Bush administration, and this commutation fits that pattern." - Sen. Patrick Leahy (VT)
• "When it comes to the law, there should not be two sets of rules - one for President Bush and Vice President Cheney and another for the rest of America." - Sen. Dick Durbin (IL)
• "President Bush's 11th-hour commutation of Scooter Libby's sentence makes a mockery of the justice system and betrays the idea that all Americans are expected to be held accountable for their actions, even close friends of Vice President Cheney." - Sen. John Kerry (MA)
• "Only a president clinically incapable of understanding that mistakes have consequences could take the action he did today. President Bush has just sent exactly the wrong signal to the country and the world." - former Sen. John Edwards (NC)
• "This commutation sends the clear signal that in this administration, cronyism and ideology trump competence and justice." - Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (NY)
• "The Constitution gives President Bush the power to commute sentences, but history will judge him harshly for using that power to benefit his own vice president's chief of staff who was convicted of such a serious violation of law." - Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (NV)
• "The president said he would hold accountable anyone involved in the Valerie Plame leak case. By his action today, the president shows his word is not to be believed." - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (CA)
• "Congress ought to conduct an investigation of whether or not the president himself is a participant in the obstruction of justice." - Joseph Wilson (Crackpot)

Related: The Plame Game

Romney & Obama - Forget POTUS

Both men are running good campaigns, but amateur mistakes abound.

Mitt Romney keeps running headfirst into his record as he presents himself as a bona fide conservative (the latest: pardons). An early money advantage propped up a strong organizational advantage in Iowa (as proven by McCain and Guiliani dropping out of the Ames straw poll this August) but the caucuses are still six month away and his advantage will dissipate (he'll peak in August). Anything short of a Romney blowout in New Hampshire will essentially end his campaign.

As for Barack Obama, his campaign continues to confirm it just won't maintain its polish while tussling with a sophisticated, battle hardened political machine (ex. leaking excerpts from books critical of Hillary during Memorial Day weekend). The Clintons will eventually drag Obama through the mud and come out, themselves, smelling like roses as Hillary takes the Democrat nomination in 2008.

Two Doses Of Reality

On the Escalator to War With Iran - Patrick Buchanan
What I Saw in Iraq - Sen. Joseph Lieberman

A thought for the road: one day after all "surge" troops were deployed, Congressional Democrats sent a letter to the President declaring his policy a failure (it's reflexive). Roosevelt must be spinning in his grave...

Immigration - I Guess I'm Elitist

A New Culture War - David Brooks

Good Reads

Our Common Struggle - Nouri al-Maliki
Bush, Reid, and the Next Step for Immigration - Fred Barnes
A French Lesson for the Grand Old Party - Newt Gingrich

2008 Presidential Race

Updated Rankings

Tom Vilsack is a major player in Hillary's campaign. It seems he's building institutional support for 2012 after Hillary's inevitable defeat in 2008, either in the primary or the general.

Know-Nothing Republicans

So the American melting pot is being torn asunder by immigrants? Nonsense.

Later in the debate, Rep. Tancredo suggested stopping all immigration until all communities are assimilated (watch out Little Italy). Here's a summery on the Know Nothings - just change Catholic to Hispanic and we're back to square one. The only thing more shameful than Tom Tancredo's remarks were the New Hampshire onlookers applauding.

And on this "English only" absurdity: it is in every immigrant's personal interest to learn English, just as it is in every citizen's interest to learn to read and write. Some old dogs may not learn new tricks, but communicating in English is easier for the young and fluency virtually guaranteed by the second generation.

Here are figures on the costs of the low-skill, low-wage workers who've expanded a rising standard of living to middle America with the sweat of their brows. If Tom Tancredo knows of Americans willing to clean bathrooms for minimum wage, I've jobs for them. If he knows more who want to wash dishes, I've got jobs for them (if they're especially ambitious, there are positions chopping vegetables, cleaning chicken gizzards, shelling shrimp, peas, beans, nuts...). But, Mr. Tancredo, if there aren't Americans willing to take those low-skill, low-wage jobs (and with 4-5% unemployment, there aren't), then prices will rise for all Americans, across the board.

Sharp increases at the grocery store (like $4 for a head of lettuce) could be more charged than gas prices last summer. Arrows from both political sides have seemingly dismantled the Senate's 'grand compromise' but reform is necessary, and most of Americans seem to realize as much.

Foreign Policy Perspective

Understanding American Realism - Condoleezza Rice